We built two estimation models to predict the growth of alignment irregularities of ballasted track. One was a model to verify the validity of measures, such as track strengthening and transport capacity reinforcement, and the other was to discuss track maintenance schedules. In order to confirm the efficiency of each model, we compared the data of actual and estimated irregularities by using a statistical modeling approach. Consequently, we confirmed the usefulness of each model. Moreover, we applied the models to economic analysis for railway track renewal and optimal tamping scheduling.

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