We considered the method to evaluate the safety for train operational control under gales quantitatively. In order to evaluate the safety, we estimate the functions of the distribution of wind velocity occurrence and wind time fluctuations. Using these functions, we calculate the probability that gales occur at a section during train operations. The authors compared the probability with relative frequency observed at the site. The authors assumed a section that wind was observed, and compared some train operational methods to evaluate the safety at the section by calculating the probability. In addition, we respectively estimated the probability and indicated the difference in the case that the wind observation period or observation site for making the wind-dataset differed.

Copyright (c) 2007 Railway Technical Research Institute